Senior Demographer Consultant

UNFPA, the UN reproductive health and rights agency, aims to achieve universal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights [SRHR] for all by ending unmet need for family planning, ending maternal death, and ending violence and harmful practices against women and girls. UNFPA has been the lead United Nations agency for reproductive health commodity security and the largest multilateral supplier of contraceptives and condoms.

UNFPA’s Strategic Plan (2026–2029) charts a roadmap for resilience and renewal, reaffirming  the organization’s  commitment to  ensuring  universal access  to sexual and reproductive health, realizing reproductive rights for all, and accelerating the implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action. The Plan focuses on four interconnected outcomes: to accelerate progress  on  meeting the  unmet  need for  family planning; end preventable maternal deaths; end gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapt to demographic change through evidence- and rights-based policies.

In Afghanistan, UNFPA’s work supports national efforts to strengthen resilient and equitable health systems and ensure continuity of quality maternal and reproductive health services for women and girls. Guided by the principles of partnership, respect and accountability, we seek  dedicated and  ethical  professionals who  embody these values and contribute to sustainable results. Without the right products, even the best health programmes cannot succeed. Hence, UNFPA is seeking candidates who can transform, inspire and deliver high-impact,  sustained results  —  professionals who  are transparent, accountable, and committed  to ensuring  the  reliable availability  of  reproductive health commodities and supplies throughout the country.

Purpose of consultancy:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled. UNFPA Afghanistan is implementing its fourth Country Programme (2015-2019) with subsequent extensions up to the year 2027. Therefore, the existence of accurate population data is the foundation stone for every programme, evidence-based policy formulation, planning and resource allocation.

Afghanistan had its only population census in 1979 and consequent efforts towards a comprehensive population census have failed due to a myriad of reasons. Population data is a mandate of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).  After the collapse of the government and the emergence of the Islamic Emirate as DfA, Afghanistan is experiencing a socio-economic and political crisis with unprecedented consequences on people’s lives. With the influx of Afghan migrants from and to neighboring countries and the rest of the world, there is an urgent need to validate the current population projections in terms of size, distribution, composition and examine the population growth patterns.   UNFPA Afghanistan has decided to validate the current population data and reach to the most reliable and up-to-date population estimates and establish a solid base for future population projections in the absence of a comprehensive population and housing census. 

The purpose of hiring Demographers is to implement the Cohort Component Method (CCM) used to project the Afghanistan population. The Demographers will ensure that the population estimates and projections, and relevant demographic indicators are reliable, consistent, to the best possible extent accurate, and  statistically meaningful across the geographic levels, and resident populations’  sex, and age groups. 

The demographers will be responsible for generating population estimates and projections, producing a comprehensive set of demographic indicators, ensuring methodological consistency following UN standards, and providing validated population datasets and technical documentations. 

You would be responsible for: 

• Compile, clean, and harmonize fragmented various surveys, administrative, and system datasets; 
• Compile and triangulate migration data from UNHCR, IOM, and administrative sources to inform national-level migration scenario assumptions; derive implied subnational migration effects through adjustment of provincial and district prorating shares where migration-related auxiliary data is available. Conduct advanced modelling of age-specific fertility rates, mortality rates, and national migration assumptions; derive subnational demographic differentials from available survey and auxiliary data to calibrate provincial prorating shares. Generate national, provincial, and district level projections using the Cohort Component Method and pro-rating techniques 
• Apply the Cohort Component Method to generate annual national population estimates and projections by age and sex; derive provincial and district population estimates and projections through structured prorating of national CCM totals, using baseline distributional shares adjusted by available auxiliary demographic indicators. Perform age-sex accuracy assessments (joint score index) and diagnostics for age heaping
• Ensure consistency of the population data estimates across all geographic levels and administrative boundaries; 
• Conduct sensitivity analysis and internal demographic validations
• Build and validate various growth (Increasing and constant and fertility) scenarios for population projections; 
• Produce technical reports, population pyramids and metadata documentation 
• Finalize the technical documentation and dissemination outputs. 

Deliverables: 

The consultant is responsible for the 11-month work plan, including: 

Qualifications and Experience: 

• At least a master's degree in demography, statistics, economics, population studies, public health, or social sciences.

Knowledge and Experience:

• Minimum 3 years proven track record in demographic analysis, population estimation and projection, population modeling, census or survey data analysis, statistics, and handling fragmented survey data or related fields. 
• Household surveys (IELFS, MICS, AHS, DHS, and census-related surveys) data analysis of household facilities, health and population themes.) 

Technical Skills:

• Proficiency in Stata, R, PAS, Spectrum and required demographic analysis software packages
• Demonstrated proficiency in demographic analysis and population projection methodologies, particularly the Cohort Component Method (CCM).
• Strong knowledge of fertility, mortality, migration, and population estimation techniques.
• Experience in data cleaning, harmonization, triangulation, and management of large-scale survey and administrative datasets.
• Ability to conduct demographic diagnostics, including age-sex accuracy assessment, age-heaping analysis, and consistency checks.
• Deep understanding and familiarity with UN demographic methodologies, international statistical standards.

Desirable Qualifications: 

• Experience with population, demographic, socio-economic, and official statistics data,
• Candidates with experience in household survey monitoring, quality check, and data analysis,
• Experience working with National Statistical Offices (NSOs), statistical agencies, UN agencies, international organizations, development partners or other institutions involved in the production, analysis, and dissemination of statistics.
• Experience in developing population estimates, demographic indicators, life tables, or population projections at national and sub-national levels.
• Publications, technical reports, or research work related to demography, population studies, or statistics will be considered an advantage.

Language requirements: 

• Excellent command of written and spoken English.
• Dari and Pashto are necessary as working languages in Afghanistan.  

Inputs/services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g. support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:
 The consultant is expected to provide all necessary equipment to complete the assignment (computer, software, phone, etc).

UNFPA will provide all relevant background information and documentation regarding the regional and country contexts as well as relevant documents on the related position. 

UNFPA Work Environment:

 UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more.

 Disclaimer:

 Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, visa issuance and other administrative requirements. 

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts. 

Applicants for positions in the international Professional and higher categories, who hold permanent resident status in a country other than their country of nationality, may be required to renounce such status upon their appointment.

UNFPA will only accept properly completed job application forms in Quantum before the closing date & will not consider late submissions after the closing date.

Any information provided on the Quantum job application form will be considered binding.

To Apply Click Here